Warning_Analysis.pdf

Joint Military Intelligence College

December 2003

WARNING ANALYSIS FOR

THE INFORMATION AGE:

RETHINKING THE

INTELLIGENCE PROCESS

John W. Bodnar

Warning Analysis for the Information Age:

Rethinking the Intelligence Process

by John W. Bodnar

Joint Military

Intelligence College

Joint Military

Intelligence College

WASHINGTON, DC

December 2003

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author

and do not reﬂect the ofﬁcial policy or position of the

Department of Defense or the U.S. Government

The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research

on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves support to

policy-level and operational consumers

Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process, by John W. Bodnar

This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a

substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases

to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and

insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book

was

recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College’s Center for Strategic Intelligence

Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original

work of the USAF’s strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. Together with the

accompanying, classiﬁed case studies that are available to the Community on Intelink, this book

reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an

accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Commu-

nity. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing

data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.

Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning

Russell.Swenson@dia.mil, Editor

Library of Congress Control Number 2003114408

ISBN 0-9656195-8-3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author gratefully acknowledges the following individuals, who reviewed

and commented on early drafts of this book.

Jim Murphy and Kelcy Allwein of the Defense Intelligence Agency; Kim

McVaney of the National Security Agency, Mike Maskelaris of MITRE Corpo-

ration, and Frank Hughes, faculty member at the Joint Military Intelligence

College.

In addition, several individuals provided invaluable assistance or advice on the

classiﬁed case studies.

From the Defense Intelligence Agency: Dr. Eric Hehl, CW3 David Temby,

Mary Highsmith, and CDR James van der Velde.

From the Joint Military Intelligence College: LTC Jeffrey Johnson, JMIC stu-

dent; Dr. William Williamson, faculty member; and Research Fellow colleague

Rebecca Katz.

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